Forecasting a special election is hard, but picking up the pieces is (comparatively) easy.
With that principle in mind, I’m looking to last spring’s special election in the 9th Assembly District for insights into the upcoming special elections, with a particular interest in the neighboring Long Island Assembly districts. This data can also test the model that I proposed to determine the voters who will show up in the race to fill George Latimer’s senate seat.
The voters that turned out in last year’s special election, which was an upset victory for Democrat Christine Pellegrino, were older and more Democratic than the electorate in the district.
It’s not particularly surprising to see that seniors made up a disproportionate share of the turnout last year, as they historically represent a large share of the vote in low turnout elections, such as primary and special elections. Continue reading “Meet the Special Election Voters”
The last of this dying breed was John Ravitz, who represented the Upper East Side in the Assembly between 1991 and 2002, when he 
Republican strategist