Meet the Special Election Voters

Forecasting a special election is hard, but picking up the pieces is (comparatively) easy.

With that principle in mind, I’m looking to last spring’s special election in the 9th Assembly District for insights into the upcoming special elections, with a particular interest in the neighboring Long Island Assembly districts. This data can also test the model that I proposed to determine the voters who will show up in the race to fill George Latimer’s senate seat.

The voters that turned out in last year’s special election, which was an upset victory for Democrat Christine Pellegrino, were older and more Democratic than the electorate in the district.

It’s not particularly surprising to see that seniors made up a disproportionate share of the turnout last year, as they historically represent a large share of the vote in low turnout elections, such as primary and special elections. Continue reading “Meet the Special Election Voters”

Last of the Manhattan Republicans

Republican elected officials from Manhattan once walked the halls of the Capitol.

The last of this dying breed was John Ravitz, who represented the Upper East Side in the Assembly between 1991 and 2002, when he lost a special election for state senate and walked away from public office.

Ravitz joined Poozer Politics to talk about his upset victory for the Assembly in 1990, the mistakes of his campaign for state senate and his place in today’s Republican Party. The conversation also explored his decision to step away from public office after he found himself on the wrong side of a leadership fight in the minority conference.

Continue reading “Last of the Manhattan Republicans”

Not so Special Election

A harbinger of future Democratic victories or an electoral anomaly?

Those are the two conflicting viewpoints following a surprise win by a Bernie Sanders supporting candidate in a special election this week for an Assembly seat that went overwhelmingly for Donald Trump in 2016 and has traditionally been easily held by Republicans.

Republican strategist Jessica Proud weighed in on the results, with a focus on issues that dominate special elections, the importance of a good ground game and the enthusiasm gap.

She also talked about areas for Republican growth in New York, laid out a path for members of Congress to avoid getting swallowed up in national trends and waxed nostalgically about past mayors of New York City. Continue reading “Not so Special Election”