(UPDATE) Senate Rematch: Handicapping a Heads-Up Race in the 31st

The four-way race from 2016 is currently a heads up rematch for the 31st Senate District.

A potential Democratic primary between Sen. Marisol Alcantara and challenger Robert Jackson could be greatly impacted by the number of candidates actually on the ballot next year, as their first contest was clearly shaped by the presence of Micah Lasher, who finished in second by less than 300 votes, and Luis Tejada, who was able to collect about five percent of the total vote.

More than one-third of the primary vote from last year is up for grabs now and this appears to favor Jackson, based on where Lasher and Tejada were popular.

Lasher performed best in the portions of the district that overlapped with the 67th and 69th Assembly Districts. He won about 72 percent of the votes in these districts, compared to the approximately 20 percent won by Jackson and 7 percent won by Alcantara.

This is a big deal for Jackson because more than 8300 votes, almost one-third of the entire primary vote, were cast in this area.

The vast majority of Lasher’s other votes came from portions of the 71st and 72nd Assembly Districts, where he amassed 2063 votes. This area was won by Alcantara, who garnered 7191 votes, compared 5721 votes for Jackson.

Based on where Jackson and Alcantara were strong in 2016, the absence of Lasher would seem to favor Jackson. Tejada’s absence would slightly benefit Alcantara based on his area’s of strength, but the advantage would be minimal considering his slight impact in the last race.

If you divide up the Tejada and Lasher votes based on how Jackson and Alcantara did against each other in the six Assembly districts included in the 31st Senate District, Jackson wins a rematch by more than 2,000 votes (54.3 percent to 45.7 percent).

The larger point, though, is that the regional trends from last year suggest a late of votes are up for grabs in a rematch.

UPDATE (05/01/17): The Daily News is reporting that Lasher has backed Jackson’s bid. If this endorsement carries any weight with Lasher’s voters it could be a very ominous sign for Alcantara.

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