There has been virtually no movement in the race for New York’s 29 electoral votes since May.
In the last six months, the Siena Research Institute has asked New Yorkers five times about their preference for president. The results have been shockingly boring and really consistent. (Pro Tip: Listen to the process for determining “likely” voters on a recent episode of the podcast)
In a poll released on May 3, Hillary Clinton had 56 percent of the vote and Donald Trump had 30 percent. This month’s polling showed basically the same results, with Clinton dropping two percentage points and Trump still at 30 percent.
You’ll notice that there is hardly any fluctuations in the support for Trump and Clinton during this period. This is in sharp contrast to national polls, which have fluctuated a lot with major news events, such as the conventions, debates and lewd audio of Trump.
It’s also surprising that there hasn’t been more fluctuation given the high percentage of voters who are undecided or are supporting third-party candidates (varied from a range of 15 percent to 25 percent since May).
If you look at subsections of voters (race, age, etc.) you won’t see much deviation either.
For example, female voters, who might have been impacted by recent Trump news, have been pretty consistent in their support for Clinton. There was a high of 60 percent in May and a low of 51 percent in September, with the number at 58 percent in October.
Additionally, there is a narrative that Republicans are bailing on Trump, but that hasn’t played out in New York. Trump was supported by 66 percent of Republicans in May and is at 68 percent of Republicans in October.
The high-level of stability in these polls suggests that an Election Day surprise for Trump is extremely unlikely for New York, despite what some of his supporters might think. Clinton’s odds are also aided by the fact that she hasn’t dropped below 50 percent, which is a magical threshold in polls.
And in case you didn’t trust Siena’s numbers, there are similar results posted on FiveThirtyEight. This helps erase the possibility that there is a sampling error that is skewing the results from Siena.
So it’s safe to move past the question of which candidate will win New York.
Now it’s time to wonder about support for the third-party candidates, how the undecided voters will break and what happens with competitive races down the ballot.