The Republican Case for Westchester

The conventional wisdom regarding the race to fill George Latimer’s vacant senate seat is that Assemblywoman Shelley Mayer has the edge in a special election this spring.

Democrats have a large enrollment edge in the district, enthusiasm nationally is on their side and Mayer is a household name in part of the county. But there is hope for Julie Killian and Republicans – and it comes from the makeup of special election voters.

Special elections are notoriously hard to poll because it’s difficult to accurately predict who will vote. (This was covered in a previous episode of Poozer Politics.) But it’s not impossible to sketch a pretty good picture of what the electorate will look like. Continue reading “The Republican Case for Westchester”

(Google) Survey Says…

What can’t Google do?

Well, at this time, it might not be the best source for election poll information, according to Dr. Don Levy, director of the Siena Research Institute.

He joined Poozer Politics to talk about the benefits and challenges of online surveys, including the possibility of Facebook polls, and explored the generic ballot question, which pollsters use to predict control of Congress.

Levy also hinted at an exciting new project for the Siena Research Institute and the first Poozer Politics poll is teased.

Don’t miss previous conversations with Levy, including an episode on likely voters and an episode that addressed the future of polling. Continue reading “(Google) Survey Says…”

The Problems of Polling

This is the second and final installment of a conversation with Dr. Don Levy, the director of the Siena Research Institute. We covered their miss in the Rochester mayoral race, the challenges of special election polls and a possible future of polling that doesn’t involve contacting voters at all. Continue reading “The Problems of Polling”

New York is unwavering in support for Clinton

There has been virtually no movement in the race for New York’s 29 electoral votes since May.

In the last six months, the Siena Research Institute has asked New Yorkers five times about their preference for president. The results have been shockingly boring and really consistent. (Pro Tip: Listen to the process for determining “likely” voters on a recent episode of the podcast)

In a poll released on May 3, Hillary Clinton had 56 percent of the vote and Donald Trump had 30 percent. This month’s polling showed basically the same results, with Clinton dropping two percentage points and Trump still at 30 percent. Continue reading “New York is unwavering in support for Clinton”

Sneak Peek in the North Country

A glimpse of a poll for an upstate Assembly race shows potentially misleading results.

D. Billy Jones, the Democrat running for the open 115th Assembly District, was required to release an internal poll to the state Board of Elections after supporters leaked a portion of the poll to the media. This week the BOE voted to release additional questions from the poll, but the commissioners appear to have left out some of the juicier information usually included in these internal polls. Continue reading “Sneak Peek in the North Country”